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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 17

Houston Texans 23 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 10-D.Mills up the middle to TEN 14 for 3 yards (97-J.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.62 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EP