4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 52

Houston Texans 23 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-25-R.Yeast.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.65 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model