Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 6 – Houston Texans 23

(8:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-80-B.Oliver.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.60 EP
56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model