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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 6 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(11:27) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 80-B.Oliver [95-D.Barnett].

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model