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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 11-M.Rudolph scrambles right end to TEN 41 for 5 yards (29-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.18 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model