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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 9

Houston Texans 13 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +2.94 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model