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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 17

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 7-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.90 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP