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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 69

Houston Texans 13 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 27 for 11 yards (13-D.Phillips). PENALTY on TEN-39-D.Baker, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at TEN 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.78 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model