4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 3-C.York 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model