Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

(2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to PIT 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 6 yards (48-C.Adomitis).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.83 EP
68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -1.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model