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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 8-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to CIN 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-I.Williams to CIN 33 for 6 yards (93-M.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.06 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model