4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 8-R.Rehkow punts 47 yards to PIT 8, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 11 for 3 yards (38-D.Ivey).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.19 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model