4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 17

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 3-C.York 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model