4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 9

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(:18) 3-C.York 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.76 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model