Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to PIT 24, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 31 for 7 yards (50-S.Heyward). FUMBLES (50-S.Heyward), RECOVERED by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither at PIT 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.99 EP
54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model