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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 8-C.Waitman to PIT 31 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PIT 32. 8-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to CIN 16, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.86 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP