Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 76

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 3

(:18) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to GB 27, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.61 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model