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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to CHI 6, Center-42-M.Orzech. 39-J.Blackwell for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.61 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP