Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 79

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(9:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to GB 24, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-J.Reed to GB 40 for 16 yards (46-S.Daly).

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model