Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 42-M.Orzech to GB 20 for -15 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by GB-19-D.Whelan at GB 17. 19-D.Whelan punts 35 yards to CHI 30, downed by GB-22-R.Rochell.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.73 EP
55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model