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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to TEN 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model