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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 26 for 9 yards (81-J.Deguara).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.50 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -2.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model