4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 10

Tennessee Titans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 7-M.Wright 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.26 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model