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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at JAX 26 for 9 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.68 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model