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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model