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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 21

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-M.Wright 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.62 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model