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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 46

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short right to 0-C.Ridley to JAX 37 for 9 yards (30-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.87 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model