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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 55

Chicago Bears 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to SEA 5, Center-46-S.Daly. 1-J.Darden to SEA 5 for no gain (10-T.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model