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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to CHI 22, Center-41-C.Stoll. 39-J.Blackwell to CHI 29 for 7 yards (25-K.McIntosh).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.56 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 37, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model