4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 40

Chicago Bears 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen (8-C.Bryant) [8-C.Bryant] at SEA 22. 27-T.Woolen pushed ob at SEA 29 for 7 yards (85-C.Kmet).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.38 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP