Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 65

Chicago Bears 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

(2:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at CHI 49 for 14 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.37 EP
56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model