Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 57

Chicago Bears 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

(8:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to SEA 12, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.86 EP
74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model