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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to CHI 24, Center-41-C.Stoll. 39-J.Blackwell to CHI 38 for 14 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.95 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 37, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP