4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP