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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 17

Cleveland Browns 3 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete deep left to 8-E.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +3.13 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.46 EP