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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 3 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(4:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short right to 81-M.Woods pushed ob at CLE 21 for 3 yards (20-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.85 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 40, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP