Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(9:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to MIA 34, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-M.Washington to MIA 38 for 4 yards (31-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.69 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 77, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model