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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 13 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to CLE 2, Center-47-J.McQuaide, downed by MIA-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model