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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 92

Miami Dolphins 13 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to 50, Center-47-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-33-S.Neal, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.72 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 92, worth -5.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.37 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 50, worth -3.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP