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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 3

Cleveland Browns 3 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(14:14) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy (5-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO +3.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 3, worth +1.47 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth +0.23 EP
PUNT +0.99 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model