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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CLE 19, Center-47-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP