Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 3 – Miami Dolphins 6

(14:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to MIA 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.32 EP
59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model