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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(:45) 27-D.Foreman right guard to MIA 38 for no gain (56-Q.Bell).

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.11 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model