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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 68 yards to MIA 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-T.Hill to MIA 30 for 18 yards (37-Da.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model