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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 7

Cleveland Browns 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 7-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 7, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model