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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 13

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.33 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model