Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 98

New Orleans Saints 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 25

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 43-M.Hayball punts 64 yards to LV 34, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-T.Tucker to NO 49 for 17 yards (45-N.Sewell). NO-53-J.Ford was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -4.02 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.71 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 98, worth -6.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model