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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 25

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 43-M.Hayball punts 55 yards to LV 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-T.Tucker to LV 33 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model