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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(13:04) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler scrambles left end to NO 46 for 8 yards (44-K.Chaisson).

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model