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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 90

New Orleans Saints 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 43-M.Hayball punts 55 yards to LV 35, Center-49-Z.Wood. 8-A.Abdullah to LV 39 for 4 yards (36-R.Payton; 48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -3.46 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model